Introduction
In preparation for the 2026 Alberta Referendum including the question: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”, the Government of Alberta solicited the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy to conduct an analysis of the potential economic impacts of Alberta succeeding from Canada. An independent advisory panel accepted the Overview Report which was released on September 16th, 2026. The Overview Report is meant to provide the necessary analysis for Albertans to make an informed decision on October 19th, with this briefing from ISP meant to provide key takeaways from the report’s findings.
Key Takeaways
- Real GDP under separation could range from 3.4% above today’s trajectory in the most favourable long-term scenario to 16.2% below it in the most difficult one, with government finances swinging from a $7.8 billion surplus to a $31.3 billion deficit across that same range.
- The tax burden facing individual Albertans moves in opposite directions across the two scenarios, from a possible $1,148 per-person tax cut under a smooth separation to a $6,598 per-person tax increase under a difficult one, while a difficult separation could also push Alberta’s borrowing cost premium up by as much as 1.18 percentage points, raising the interest Albertans pay on mortgages, auto loans, and other consumer credit.
- Albertan businesses face a double exposure to separation: a borrowing cost premium that could rise by up to 1.65 percentage points, and interprovincial trade costs that could cut Alberta’s exports to the rest of Canada by roughly a third.
- Setting up the institutions of an independent state, including a central bank, a national defence force, and a separate revenue collection system, would cost an estimated $40 to $55 billion over five years, on top of a $60 billion annual increase in ongoing government spending.
- Much of Alberta’s trade and monetary position, from CUSMA accession to continued use of the Canadian dollar, depends on negotiated outcomes rather than automatic continuity, and no region inside a fully democratic federation has separated through a popular referendum in modern history to serve as a direct precedent.
This report adds significant new economic data into the equation that many Albertans will be considering before they head to the polls on October 19th. You can read the full report here.