Introduction
On September 22nd, British Columbia’s (BC) Premier David Eby announced that British Columbians will be going to the polls on October 24th. During his announcement, Eby has framed this snap election as a chance to create a ‘firebreak’ against American threats to British Columbia’s economy. Being called two years ahead of schedule, this snap election is being held in the context of rebounding poll numbers for Eby’s slim New Democratic Party (NDP) majority government and a changing opposition with BC Conservative leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay resigning on September 20th.
Key Insights
Tough-on-Trump Rhetoric in BC
- Eby’s calling of a ‘firebreak’ election in the face of economic and sovereignty threats by the United States provides an electoral test on tough-on-Trump positioning at the provincial level. Carney, in amidst of a trade war with the United States, has enjoyed the highest approval rating of any Prime Minister after being elected on a firm stance against Trump in the previous federal general election. In a provincial context, Ontario Premier Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservatives have managed to stave off momentum from opposition parties due to capitalizing on the trade war. This firebreak election could signal whether such messaging is still effective and leads to electoral success at the provincial level.
Overlapping Electorate and Voter Fatigue
- With both the provincial election scheduled a week before the municipal elections scheduled for October, overall engagement and turnout may be impacted which is a point of frustration from municipalities.
An Uncommitted Electorate
- Polling suggests that most British Columbians feel ‘politically orphaned’ by the current political parties. With a snap election providing a smaller runway for campaigning, competing municipal elections, and a lack of commitment to parties by the electorate, this election requires an engaging and persuasive campaign for control of the legislature.
An Opportunity to Unite the Right?
- With the resignation of Findlay and the calling of a snap election, BC’s political right may finally have the fuel to organize the conservative flank. The rapid absorption of MLAs back into the Conservative caucus and the potential merger of the Conservative Party and CentreBC motivated by the snap election may negate any potential that this election will capitalize on right wing disorganization.